TCF Eval Summer 2025
The Aviation Weather Center will host the 2025 TCF Evaluation virtually from August 11th through August 29th, 2025.
RRFS AutoTCF Evaluation
Implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) and its ensemble system (REFS), alongside retirement of legacy convection allowing models (HiresWindow, NAM, NAM Nest, and the HREF) will have significant impacts to the TCF forecast process. Implementation and retirement are scheduled for February 2026, just before the start of the 2026 TCF season. During this evaluation, the AWT and participants will assess the impacts to the AutoTCF and TCF collaboration, while looking forward at where ProbIDSS fits into the TCF paradigm. Specific activities/assessments include:
- An updated AutoTCF algorithm being run on several different blends of RRFS/REFS/HRRR inputs
- Assessment of how RRFS/REFS guidance fits into the TCF forecast process
- Assessment of experimental probabilistic guidance as a part of the TCF forecast process
- Initial look at GSL MPAS development candidate for RRFSv2