The Aviation Weather Center will host the 2020 Aviation Weather Testbed Virtual Summer Experiment over the two weeks of August 3-7 and August 10-14, 2020. This virtual evaluation will focus on looking at potential graphics that display the probability of exceeding TCF coverage thresholds. These graphics will explore the utility of providing a summary of convective threats over the next 24 hours, supplementing the individual snapshot depictions of the final and extended versions of the Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF).
Guidance imagery, depicting the probability of exceeding sparse and medium coverage TCF thresholds, will be automatically generated from two different model sources twice per day, in the early morning and early afternoon. Evaluation of the guidance by participants will help us meet the following goals:
Assess the usefulness of 24 hour summary information of TCF focused threatsCurrently, the TCF and eTCF products provide individual snapshots of expected convective coverage and echo tops heights every two hours from forecast hours 4-30. Aggregating the information from these individual snapshots into and overall picture of where convective threats exist of the next ~24 hours is a challenge. This assessment seeks to identify whethere providing a single summary graphic depicting convective threats over a 24 hour period provides a useful supplement to the individual snapshots of TCF/eTCF.
Identify optimal ways to provide, interpret, and communicate probabilistic convective information
In recent years, integrating probabilistic guidance into the overall envelope of available guidance has been a challenge. This assessment hopes to identify optimal ways to provide, interpret, and communicate probabilistic information
Assess the skillfulness of convection allowing ensemble systems for aviation focused convective forecasts
Probabilistic forecast guidance will be generated from two different convection allowing ensembles, the current operational HREF and the experimental HRRRE. The guidance from each ensemble will be compared in order to assess their overall skillfulness in providing useful aviation focused convective forecasts.